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Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged?
Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
 Alert
me when the RTI is updated
This
week (Aug. 14 - Aug. 20) the experts say: Rates are headed
higher.
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| Aug. 14 - Aug. 20 |
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It was almost an even split this week. Just a little over one-third of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 31 percent think rates will fall, and 31 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Panel:
Up:
38% |
Down:
31% |
Unchanged:
31% |
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| Experts' comments and Bankrate
analysts |
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Experts' comments |
Panel |
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Plunging
retail sales and a struggling stock market bode
well for the bond market, which is where mortgage
pricing comes from. In addition, falling oil prices
help temper fears of inflation, which is the enemy
of bonds.
David Kuiper, mortgage
planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
|
down |
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It
seems that with the volatility of the market,
data challenging inflationary indicators, that
whatever happened to rates yesterday, the opposite
will happen the next day. This will lead to very
slight changes, in either direction, until the
market continues to settle down.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending,
Guaranteed Rate, Chicago
|
unchanged |
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Mortgage-backed
bond prices have been bouncing between support
of recent lows and unable to edge of the resistance
layer of the 25-day moving average. Oil's recent
decline has helped stocks -- thus hurting bonds
-- but sour economic reports will continue the
tug of war back and forth.
Sean Rafferty, mortgage
planner, OurPersonalMortgagePlanner.com, San Jose,
Calif.
|
unchanged |
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New
loan fees from Fannie and Freddie wipe out market
gains. The "middleman" fee takes its toll.
Dan Green, Mobium
Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
|
up |
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The daily and weekly techs are still bullish (higher
prices, lower yields) and volatility is high.
Consequently the techs are pointing to a potential
brief dip in rates. Reality regarding bank write-offs
of mortgage debt and the continued changing status
and perception of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae clouds
everything.
Dick Lepre, senior
loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San
Francisco
|
down |
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Rate direction has meaningful impact, of course,
but focus remains on borrower qualification for
loans driven by lender (bank and GSE-sponsored)
constraints that are expanding, raising concerns
that, regardless of the rate environment, there
may be a further increase in borrowers who are
unable to qualify. Directionally, rates 45 days
to 60 days out are expected to be range-bound
but with volatility at recent highs, this can
change on a dime.
Cameron Findlay,
chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.
|
unchanged |
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Just
as there is no obvious explanation for the drop
in oil prices, mortgage rates are going to drop
like a rock. Refi-mania will soon be here.
Jeff Lazerson, president,
Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
|
down |
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I see continued battles between information that
will push rates higher and lower. Inflation
concerns will continue to steal headlines and
economic news will work to balance any negative
impact to rates. However, the moves will be swift
day to day and it's important to have an agreement
with your lender to capture the best rates available
in advance. Make sure your lender tracks mortgage-backed
security prices in real time to protect you.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage
consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart,
Fla.
|
unchanged |
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Bankrate's analysts |
Panel |
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It's
simple: The trend is higher. Rates will have their
ups and downs, but rates are headed higher in
the medium term. Higher inflation is one reason.
Risk aversion is another. Lenders and Fannie and
Freddie are jacking up rates and fees to compensate
for risk.
Holden Lewis, senior
reporter, Bankrate.com
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up |
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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
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This week: Aug. 14 - Aug. 20
